Some international trade news in 2013.

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Seoul (South Korea) - Beijing (China)  (Just an Example)

SOME RELEVANT NEWS IN 2013.

1.- Russia is new member of WTO.

2.- EU finally is recovering from the economic crisis.

3.- The USA-EU Free Trade Agreement negotiations

4.-TPPA (Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement) negotiations

5.- USA is negotiating in both main agreements of the world.

6.- China has now the same volume in international trade that USA.

7.- SME’s incorporation to international trade is increasing.

8.- First global agreement of WTO to encourage the trade of less developing countries.

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Seoul (South Korea) - Beijing (China)

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RCEP vs TPP:

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Lima - Sydney (Just an example)

RCEP vs TPP: 

Both agreements show the will to power of USA and China

 1.- A free trade area of Asia in the Pacific. But while the Trans-Pacific Partnership (US, Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, New Zealand, Australia, Brunei, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia) has been seen as a strategy to contain and exclude China,

 2.- the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (ASEAN plus Australia, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea and New Zealand) is a trade negotiation which includes China.

However, there are fundamental tensions and conflicts between the two agreements,  in matters of membership, objectives, principles and text.

The agreements rival each other. Not only because China and US are super competitors in half, and partners in the other half, but there are much more and complex tensions between members. 

Further, it is not clear if these regional agreements will promote free trade or lock-down protectionism vs third parties.

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International marketing strategy.

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Shanghai (China) – New York (USA). (Just an example)

Complex game board. 

1.- In a crowded political playing field, achieving consensus on important issues is nearly impossible. 

2.- The geopolitical order grows more complex, and global rules are nearly impossible to apply, so each country plans its own laborious strategy, depending the strength and strategy of the other players and depending of other many factors interweaved, in the complex game board.

3.- The surge in the number of FTAs, most of them overlapping each other, has been one reason for successful economic growth in East Asia (about 50 in the last decade) with another 80 pending, however, there are concerns about the Asian overlapping rules of origin  requirements, which may be costly to business, especially small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

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Potential future in the world.(moment to be global)

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Potential future in the world 

The projection of the future by simple extrapolation of current trends is never safe.

The surprise is inevitable. 

It is impossible to guess what will happen.

But the CNI expects a transformed world in 30 years, a world where any country, nor U.S. (although U.S probably remain much of its actual hard power, and soft power) neither China (close to overcome U.S economically) nor any other country, will get the world hegemony, due to four "megatrends": 

1.- Growing power by individuals and rising global middle class.

2.- Diffusion of power from states to informal networks and coalitions.

3.-Demographic changes due to urbanization, migration and aging.

4.-Growing demand of food, water and energy.

Further. Asia is the counterweight of the West.

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Manila (Phillipines) - Singapore…

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